US Covid 19 Herd Immunity Map Released - For many, we are already there.

3 years ago 456

Corrales, New Mexico: Care Maps, Inc., today announced the “CV 19 Herd Immunity Map” of the US, ranking the states according to their vaccination and Herd immunity status. With no uniform national plan, each state has forged its own path in managing vaccinations, mixing politics and policy in different proportions.  The newly released Herd immunity mapping tool is now available to compare and contrast performances.

The basis for the map is the discovery of an exact solution to a 94 year-old epidemic model by a New Mexico scientist, Dr. Jacob Kuriyan.  This solution predicts the onset of Herd immunity when just 25% of the population is immunized, through recovery or vaccination or a combination.  “The model equations were difficult to solve and since approximate solutions were used, the relationship of Herd immunity onset to vaccinations remained hidden and was unknown,” said Dr. Kuriyan. 

Contrasted against this, the current estimates of the onset of Herd immunity from the CDC and experts are between 70% and 85% immunization. But with current national vaccination data, we see signs that the 25% immunization is the correct threshold.   

The results and map are available here:!/vizhome/CareMapsCovid19HerdImmunityandVaccination/HerdImmunity

There seems to be three types of states that qualify to be past the threshold of Herd Immunity.  New Mexico is the only state that has already met the 25% vaccination limit.  As vaccinations increase, many more states will belong to this type.  The majority of the other states have combined their vaccinated population with those already recovered from Covid 19, to reach the 25%.   In the third type are Texas and Iowa that have total immunizations less than 25% but with lower infections that stifled the growth of the pandemic.   

The onset of Herd immunity should be viewed as the start of a journey – when the size of the epidemic begins to decrease - and not as a destination when the pandemic ends.  Many states may have large pools of infected people remaining at the onset of Herd immunity; without adequate safety measures, the pandemic can easily surge.  “Infections progress geometrically, in leaps, while recoveries move arithmetically, in small steps”, said Dr. Kuriyan.  With visitors and new variants of the virus, surges will inevitably continue, but the downward trend will improve with more vaccinations.

The Herd Immunity Map offers an opportunity to rate the performance of states in managing the pandemic quantitatively and to identify the least risky destinations in a geographical region.

The paper with the details of the calculation  has not been peer reviewed.  It can be read here:

Physmark, Inc., a healthcare software company, used its patented chronic population model to develop CareMaps.  Care Maps, Inc. has the exclusive rights to market CareMaps.  Both companies are based in Corrales, New Mexico. 


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